https://benefica.co/insights.html Latest Research & Analysis en https://benefica.co/insights/country-risk-profile-2026-09-11.html https://benefica.co/insights/country-risk-profile-2026-09-11.html Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:10:02 GMT Georgia's risk profile reads as strong on flows and thin on buffers. Growth of 8.95% in the first quarter of 2026, a budget deficit of 1.22% of GDP and a real exchange rate swing of 3.40% in 2025 describe an economy expanding quickly with a stable currency and undemanding public finances, while foreign direct investment equal to 169.97% of the current account deficit means the external gap was met by equity rather than by debt that has to be refinanced. Against that, reserves at 0.84 times short-term external debt sit below the level at which a year of maturities could be met from own resources, and the intermediate readings on investment, loan quality, the current account and net external debt of 31.75% of GDP leave no section with obvious capacity to absorb a shock. The practical conclusion is that country risk is currently low for as long as external funding remains available on present terms, and that the liquidity ratio, not growth or the budget, is the series to track between now and the next profile. https://benefica.co/insights/monetary-policy-watch-2026-09-10.html https://benefica.co/insights/monetary-policy-watch-2026-09-10.html Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:44:02 GMT The National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy rate at 8.25% on 9 September, the same level set at the decisions of 17 June and 29 July. Annual inflation has moved little over that stretch: 5.8% in June, 5.5% in July and 5.6% in August, a rise of 0.1 percentage points in the most recent month. https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-09-01.html https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-09-01.html Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:44:05 GMT Bank lending grew 0.67% in July, down from 1.75% in June, and the composition is the more informative part. The lari loan book rose to 45223.2 million GEL from 44551.2 million, while the foreign-currency book fell to 31232.1 million from 31397.9 million. https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-09-01.html https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-09-01.html Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:44:02 GMT The share of the banking sector's loan book held in foreign currency fell to 40.85% in July 2026, from 41.34% in June and 41.65% in May — 0.80 percentage points lower across the two months, and below the 42.40% recorded for 2025 as a whole. The annual series has moved in one direction: 45.20% in 2023, 43.40% in 2024, 42.40% in 2025. https://benefica.co/insights/monetary-policy-watch-2026-08-31.html https://benefica.co/insights/monetary-policy-watch-2026-08-31.html Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:44:03 GMT The National Bank of Georgia held the monetary policy rate at 8.25% on 29 July, the third consecutive decision at that level after 6 May and 17 June. Annual inflation eased to 5.5% in July from 5.8% in June, and stood at 5.7% in May — a narrow range that offered little reason to move. https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-08-31.html https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-08-31.html Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:44:03 GMT Outstanding bank loans in national currency rose to 45,223.2 million GEL in July from 44,551.2 million in June, while the foreign-currency stock fell to 31,232.1 million from 31,397.9 million — its first decline over the three months shown. https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-08-31.html https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-08-31.html Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:44:02 GMT Loan dollarization fell to 40.85% in July from 41.34% in June, a second consecutive monthly decline and 0.80 percentage points below the 41.65% recorded in May. The share is 1.55 points under the 42.40% reported for 2025, which in turn followed 43.40% in 2024 and 45.20% in 2023. https://benefica.co/insights/weekly-economy-digest-2026-08-30.html https://benefica.co/insights/weekly-economy-digest-2026-08-30.html Sun, 30 Aug 2026 21:28:02 GMT The lari firmed against both the euro and the dollar over the three sessions shown. The euro eased to 3.0412 GEL on 28 August from 3.0551 on 27 August and 3.0500 on 26 August; the dollar closed at 2.6125 after 2.6195 and 2.6153. The euro move is the larger of the two and more than reverses the previous session's rise, which matters for anyone holding euro-denominated payables. https://benefica.co/insights/fx-weekly-2026-08-30.html https://benefica.co/insights/fx-weekly-2026-08-30.html Sat, 29 Aug 2026 20:36:03 GMT The Russian rouble was the clearest mover against the lari in the sessions shown. On 28 August, 100 roubles bought 3.0496 lari, down from 3.1509 on 22 August — a fall of 0.1013 lari and the lowest reading in the window from 19 to 28 August. https://benefica.co/insights/weekly-economy-digest-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/weekly-economy-digest-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:36:18 GMT Annual inflation eased to 5.5% in July from 5.8% in June, and it now sits below May's 5.7% as well. https://benefica.co/insights/real-wage-tracker-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/real-wage-tracker-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:36:17 GMT Real wage growth slowed to 3.36% in the first quarter of 2026, from 6.22% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 5.74% in the third — a fall of 2.86 percentage points in a single quarter. Purchasing power is still rising, but at roughly half the pace of six months earlier. https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/credit-dollarization-tracker-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:36:17 GMT Foreign currency accounted for 41.34% of the banking sector's loan book in June, down from 41.65% in May and 41.86% in April — a decline of 0.52 percentage points across the three months shown. https://benefica.co/insights/gdp-quarterly-2026-08-09.html https://benefica.co/insights/gdp-quarterly-2026-08-09.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:29:01 GMT Real GDP grew 9.0% in the first quarter of 2026, up 2.3 percentage points from 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, which in turn followed 6.4% in the third. All of these are Geostat's provisional estimates and are subject to revision. https://benefica.co/insights/cpi-regional-monthly-2026-08-07.html https://benefica.co/insights/cpi-regional-monthly-2026-08-07.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:29:01 GMT Annual inflation in Batumi rose to 7.4% in July, a third consecutive monthly increase, while Tbilisi moved the other way and eased to 5.3% from 5.8% in June. https://benefica.co/insights/cpi-monthly-2026-08-08.html https://benefica.co/insights/cpi-monthly-2026-08-08.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:29:01 GMT Annual inflation eased to 5.5% in July from 5.8% in June, a decline of 0.3 percentage points that leaves the headline rate close to its May level of 5.7%. The components, however, moved in opposite directions. https://benefica.co/insights/gdp-real-vs-nominal-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/gdp-real-vs-nominal-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:28:02 GMT GDP at current prices reached 104598.1 million GEL in 2025, up 11575.8 million from 93022.3 million in 2024. Measured at constant prices, output rose from 67660.0 million to 72708.5 million GEL — an increase of 5048.5 million. Real GDP growth, annual came to 7.5%, while the GDP deflator, annual stood at 4.6%. All 2025 figures are provisional and are subject to revision by Geostat. https://benefica.co/insights/fdi-investment-climate-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/fdi-investment-climate-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:26:04 GMT Foreign direct investment reached 1,688,665 thousand US dollars in 2025, on provisional data, up 7.61% over the year. That is the first increase after two consecutive declines, of 13.3% in 2023 and 18.63% in 2024. https://benefica.co/insights/external-debt-composition-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/external-debt-composition-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:24:03 GMT Commercial banks' short-term external debt rose to 4,821,560 thousand US dollars in the first quarter of 2026, from 4,369,081 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2025 — an increase of 452,479 thousand and the only rise among the four institutional sectors. Combined short-term external debt of the government sector, the National Bank, commercial banks and other sectors reached 6,631,568 thousand in the first quarter of 2026, against 6,272,748 thousand a quarter earlier, so the whole of the increase sits with the banking sector. https://benefica.co/insights/sector-growth-spotlight-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/sector-growth-spotlight-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:10:03 GMT Real GDP grew 9.0% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 on provisional data — 2.3 percentage points faster than the 6.7% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, and above the 6.4% of the third quarter. https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-11.html https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-11.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:08:04 GMT The Russian rouble weakened against the lari in both moves recorded in the window shown: 100 roubles were worth 3.1687 GEL on 11 August, against 3.2024 GEL on 8 August and 3.2281 GEL on 7 August, a cumulative decline of 0.0594 lari. The Armenian dram followed a different path — flat between 7 August (1000 drams = 7.1610 GEL) and 8 August (7.1612 GEL), then down to 7.1287 GEL on 11 August. https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:08:04 GMT The Russian rouble was the largest mover against the lari on 12 August: 100 roubles were worth 3.1846 GEL, up from 3.1687 GEL on 11 August. Even after that rise the rate sits below the 3.2024 GEL of 8 August, so across the three sessions shown the rouble has lost ground against the lari. For households receiving remittances from Russia, the amount converted depends noticeably on the day. https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-08-12.html https://benefica.co/insights/banking-sector-snapshot-2026-08-12.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:08:03 GMT Banks issued 6238.6 million GEL in national-currency loans in June, 1092.9 million more than in May and the third consecutive monthly increase from 4692.8 million in April. https://benefica.co/insights/country-risk-profile-2026-08-11.html https://benefica.co/insights/country-risk-profile-2026-08-11.html Mon, 10 Aug 2026 22:44:02 GMT Read together, the six ratios describe an economy whose flows are strong and whose external buffers are not. The budget balance and real GDP growth sit in the range that needs no management; foreign direct investment, the current account and the net external debt stock occupy the middle band where they should be monitored rather than acted upon; and reserve cover of short-term external debt is the single reading past the danger threshold. That combination points to moderate overall risk concentrated almost entirely in external liquidity rather than in solvency or activity: a change in the terms on which Georgia refinances short-term external obligations would register long before it appeared in the deficit or in output. Both caveats belong with the assessment — the first-quarter national accounts are provisional and subject to revision, and this profile carries one observation per ratio, so it reports levels rather than trends. https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-08.html https://benefica.co/insights/fx-daily-2026-08-08.html Sat, 08 Aug 2026 07:50:12 GMT The Russian rouble was the only notable mover against the lari on 8 August: 100 roubles bought 3.2024 GEL, down 0.0257 from 3.2281 a day earlier and 0.0316 below the 3.2340 recorded on 6 August. Over three sessions no other quoted currency moved on anything like that scale.